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UNDERSTANDING THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

A document with a vague sounding name like Paris Agreement being bandied about in the cable news doesn’t garner much attention from the general public, even somebody like me who lives and breathes this stuff about 15 hours every day in one form or another.

The “mentions” have become more prominent now as the Agreement has become a source of contention between our outgoing president and the incoming Trump administration.

The Paris Agreement has to do with global warming, or climate change as the proponents now choose to call it.  The Agreement stems from a meeting in Paris held in December, 2015 at the 21st Conference of the Parties by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The language of the agreement was negotiated by representatives of 195 countries and adopted by consensus on December 15 of that year.  It went into effect on November 4 of this year, which explains the more than usual interest in recent weeks.

The goal of the Agreement is to reduce planet warming emissions of greenhouse gases.  Proponents have cautioned that it is not a silver bullet for global warming but just an attempt to stave off the most damaging effects of climate change by limiting the increase in global temperatures to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.

Not all countries have ratified the agreement.  As of November 4, only 94 have ratified and  this represents only 66% of the emissions.

To reach their goal, proponents admit they face an uphill battle.  Most companies don’t even know how much they emit, nor how to curb those emissions.

Supporters claim the Agreement is needed because worldwide petrochemical consumption is doubling every 10 years.  Aviation fuel consumption has surged as millions of people in China and other advanced developing countries have become able to afford air tickets, and sales of fuel-guzzling trucks have soared in developing countries.

Noam Chomsky is an American linguist, philosopher, cognitive scientist, historian, social critic and political activist.  He predicts dire consequences if the U.S. pulls out of the Agreement, saying there will be millions who will die climate change-related deaths from flooding, forced migration, starvation, drought and extreme weather.  Of course, he has also said that the Republican Party is the most dangerous organization in world history, so there may be a little bias there.

President-Elect Trump has implied that he would pull us out, and hence the sharp disagreement between him and President Obama.

While other countries are referring to the agreement as a “Treaty”, President Obama has refused to do so, knowing he doesn’t have the 67 votes to ratify a treaty so he is calling it an agreement, similar to the action he took with regard to the Iran Nuclear “deal”.

Opponents of the Agreement warn that a global restriction on carbon emissions will come at a high cost to consumers.  The price of natural gas will double due to the cost of new carbon taxes and regulation of fracking, in effect doubling home heating and other utility bills tied to natural gas.   The price for oil will also increase, raising the cost of gasoline.

Author Jeffrey Folks who has written many books on American culture, asks this question about what will happen to the money President Obama and other Western leaders have pledged for the Paris Agreement - $100 billion in wealth transfers per year.

Although the “intention” of the cash so pledged is to be used by third world dictatorships to promote green alternatives such as windmills and solar panels, Folks and other opponents fear this huge sum will get swallowed up in “bureaucratic costs, waste, and outright corruption.”

The leaders of developing countries in Africa and Asia are holding out for more, and President Obama seems willing to comply.

According to an article in the New York Times in February, another factor to consider is that the Supreme Court in February of this year halted President Obama’s plan for restricting emissions from coal-fired power plants, one of the president’s signature initiatives.  The President’s assurance that the U.S. would carry out strong policies to significantly cut carbon emissions was a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement and a major incentive to all other countries to likewise cut emissions.

According to the website for the Union of Concerned Scientists, this order to halt the Clean Power Plan, as mentioned above, will stay in place until a lower court rules on the merits and the Supreme Court either refuses to hear the case or rules on the merits.  This hold is likely to last for approximately 18 months, which would take it past the January 20 Inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

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